Moustakas Letting It Roll

We’ve given the Royals’ Mike Moustakas a good bit of virtual ink lately. He appeared on last week’s Prospect Hot Sheet and has been a fixture in recent Low A Daily Dishes, but it’s worth delving a little more into how large his turnaround has been over the last couple of weeks.

No one was probably happier to see the calendar flip from April to May than Moustakas. The top prospect in the Royals organization hit only .190/.253/.226 for the month, and his first extra-base hit of the season didn’t come until April 28 when he homered against Cedar Rapids. He committed six errors in the month (though three of them came in one game) and had a grand total of four RBIs despite hitting third or fourth in the Burlington order every game.

Moustakas opened the season as Burlington’s cleanup hitter, but was moved up to the three-spot after eight games in which he hit .172/.226/.172 (5-for-29) and has stayed there ever since. Still, moving him up in the order didn’t produce immediate results, as he managed a .200/.267/.255 line the rest of the month. He punctuated April by going 0-for-6 in an extra-inning loss on April 29.

--BASEBALL AMERICA PROSPECT DISH

Low A Dish: Villalona Comes Alive

South Atlantic League

Prospect Of The Day

It’s taken until mid-May, but we finally get to give a salute to Augusta (Giants) first baseman Angel Villalona. The Giants’ top prospect has gotten off to a slow start in the Sally League to the tune of a .213/.273/.354 line through 36 games, but he deserves plenty of slack since he’s all of 17 years old, and won’t turn 18 until August. However, his bat has been coming around lately. He’s had hits in five of his last six games, with two homers in that span, and last night against Rome (Braves), he went 3-for-6 with two doubles and two RBIs in the GreenJackets’ 8-7, 13-inning victory.

--BASEBALL AMERICA LOW A DISH

Weekend Preview: May 15-18

Meaningful Matchup

North Carolina at Miami

It doesn't get much better than this: No. 1 vs. No. 2 in the regular-season finale, with the Atlantic Coast Conference championship and, in all likelihood, the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA tournament on the line.

Either top-ranked Miami or second-ranked North Carolina is going to lose a series this weekend for the first time all year. The two teams are a combined 21-0-1 in weekend series, 42-9 in the ACC and 83-15 overall. Gaudy numbers, especially in this year of widespread parity in college baseball.

"It's unbelievable, actually. How many times in the same league do you end the season with No. 1 and No. 2?" UNC pitching coach Scott Forbes said. "Both teams have had such great years. I think both staffs have come to the realization that it's not going to make or break any team's season . . . For me it's just going to be fun to watch the players compete against each other."

--BASEBALL AMERICA

Prospect Quick Hit: Scouting Oriole Prospect Brandon Tripp

Brandon Tripp is a mostly an unknown prospect in the Baltimore Oriole organization. Drafted out of Cal State Fullerton in the 12th round of the 2006 MLB draft,Tripp struggled mightily to open up his professional career. He posted just a .650 OPS to go along with a meager .096 ISO-power, while striking out 28% of the time.

However, after retooling his swing, Tripp posted a .907 OPS to go along with a .243 ISO power that looks even more impressive considering he played half his games in a heavy pitcher's park in Low-A Delmarva. What adjustments did Tripp make to his swing after his 2006 season?

--BASEBALL-INTELLECT

NCBWA Announces 16 Dick Howser Trophy Semifinalists

The National Collegiate Baseball Writers Association, working in conjunction with the St. Petersburg Area Chamber of Commerce, has released the list of 16 semifinalists for the 2008 Dick Howser Trophy, given to the top player in collegiate baseball. The membership of the NCBWA will choose the Dick Howser Trophy based on three rounds of voting.  The 2008 winner will be announced just prior to the first game of the College World Series, with a press conference slated for Saturday, June 14, at 10 a.m. (CDT) at the Greater Omaha Chamber of Commerce.

The 16 candidates hail from nine different conferences, with the SEC producing four and the Pac-10 listing three.  Arizona State and Kentucky are the only schools with multiple semifinalists.  Eight different positions are represented on the list, including five pitchers, three outfielders and two first basemen.

The Dick Howser Trophy, given in memory of the former Florida State University All-America shortstop and major league player and manager who died of brain cancer in 1987, is regarded by many as college baseball's most prestigious award.

Criteria for consideration for the trophy include performance on the field, leadership, moral character and courage, qualities that were exemplified by Dick Howser's life.

The Howser Trophy was created in 1987, shortly after Howser's death.  Previous winners of the Howser Trophy are Mike Fiore, Miami, 1987; Robin Ventura, Oklahoma State, 1988; Scott Bryant, Texas, 1989; Alex Fernandez, Miami-Dade Community College South, 1990; Frank Rodriguez, Howard College (Texas), 1991; Brooks Kieschnick, Texas, 1992 and 1993; Jason Varitek, Georgia Tech, 1994; Todd Helton, Tennessee, 1995; Kris Benson, Clemson, 1996; J. D. Drew, Florida State, 1997; Eddy Furniss, LSU, 1998; Jason Jennings, Baylor, 1999; Mark Teixeira, Georgia Tech, 2000; Mark Prior, P, USC, 2001, Khalil Greene, SS, Clemson, 2002; Rickey Weeks, 2B, Southern U., 2003; Jered Weaver, P, Long Beach State, 2004; Alex Gordon, 3B, Nebraska, 2005; and Brad Lincoln, P/DH, Houston, 2006; David Price, P, Vanderbilt.

2008 DICK HOWSER TROPHY SEMIFINALISTS

Pos. Name, School
Ike Davis, UT, Arizona State
Brett Wallace, 3B, Arizona State
David Cooper, 1B, California
Buster Posey, C, Florida State
Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia
Chris Shehan, OF, Georgia Southern
Sawyer Carroll, OF, Kentucky
Collin Cowgill, OF, Kentucky
Jemile Weeks 2B, Miami (Fla.)
Aaron Crow, P, Missouri
Johnny Dorn, P, Nebraska
George Brown, P, St. John’s
Brian Matusz, P, San Diego
Stephen Strasburg, P, San Diego State
Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina
Shooter Hunt, P, Tulane

--NCBWA

Crack of the Bat

Draft Projection: Cost & Demand

Last year I profiled the 15 teams that were picking in the first half of the first round of the draft, breaking down not so much who they were going to take, but who they were more likely to take given their history coupled with how many extra (or less) early picks they had based on free agent compensatory selections.

I will do so again this year, offering an overview of each team’s drafting history, the current status of their organization and the names of some players that could be natural fits for the top 15 selections.

1. Tampa Bay Rays

A new look and team name has the 2008 Rays thinking about bigger and better things in the future, as for the first time in their existence they managed to be five games over .500. That’s not something to be proud of, but it is a nice step in the right direction.

This is magnified when you consider how long they have sat atop the raw draft order, as it seems that the talent they have been selecting early is finally starting to pay dividends. It is important to note that they haven’t been afraid to open up their pocketbooks to take the players that are considered the best available regardless of how much it took to get them in the fold.

So don’t expect money to restrict them from taking who they view is the best available player.

Of course, everyone has a different opinion on who might be the best available player, and while Vanderbilt third baseman Pedro Alvarez entered the season as the number one draft-eligible prospect, the Rays reportedly are looking elsewhere, with Florida State catcher Buster Posey receiving the most interest. Some may question whether or not Posey is an impact player that would be worthy of the first overall pick, but catchers that can hit are not easy to come by, and while teams don’t typically draft for immediate need, he certainly would fill a gaping hole in the Rays current lineup.

The team does not have any additional compensatory picks, nor did they lose any picks. They haven’t shown a noticeable preference drafting high school players or college player, but they have had more luck drafting and developing prep pitchers than most teams in recent years given the success of lefty Jacob McGee and righties Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson. With the deepest and most talent-laden minor league system in all of baseball, the Rays should be in a great position to supplement that talent since they own the first pick in every non-supplemental round.

Projected Pick: Buster Posey

--PG CROSSCHECKER

Draft Dish

A few news and notes around the Internet concerning some of the draft prospects I thought were worth mulling over a little bit.

Baseball America is saying Tanner Scheppers has had some inflammation in his pitching shoulder. His coach has ridden him pretty hard, so hopefully it’s not a prelude to something more serious. Scheppers could be selected in the 6-12 range, I wonder if this news could slide him down a little. He’ll be pitching this week, I’m interested to see how he fares. UPDATE. Turns out he has a stress fracture in his shoulder. That’s not good, and will certainly shake things up a bit.

Keith Law says Melville’s stock is back up, as he’s been warming up with the weather. On the other hand, Kyle Skipworth’s stock sliding a little bit, as there are some concerns now about whether or not he can stick at catcher. Also in Keith Law’s top 30 is FR’s own favorite cheeseball and hometown hero Jake Odorizzi.

Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com takes a stab the first ten picks, and has all sorts of juicy nuggets of info along the way.

-The White Sox really like Arizona State 3B Brett Wallace.
-The Reds could take SS/RHP Casey Kelly in the first round. Kelly’s a top 30 prospect, but not a top 10 guy in most people’s minds. But, his dad is Reds bench coach Pat Kelly, and we know from drafts were Jocketty was the GM that his clubs can reach a bit to show some favor (read: nepotism) to his coaches and scouts.
-Despite concerns about his defense, the Marlins have been all over Kyle Skipworth.

--FUTURE REDBIRDS

Scouting Report: Tyler Robertson

I’m leaving now to head to Orlando for the UCF-Clemson series, so I don’t have time to post the full Tyler Robertson scouting report right now, but it’s coming tonight.

I did manage to get the video on YouTube, and to tide you over until the report comes tonight, here’s the Robertson video and here’s my preliminary thoughts on his outing.

Notice the “funkiness” in the arm action, it’s a little stiff (arm fully extended) and he never really goes behind his body (parallel with chest) as much as you’d prefer.  So, that’s what the scouts don’t like.  Decide for yourself and I’ll give my take in a few hours.

--SABER-SCOUTING

High School Pitchers of Interest for 2008 Draft

Here is a look at the top high school pitchers for the 2008 draft. As with the hitters, I haven't seen these guys in person and my impressions are based on scouting reports, video, and intuition. Right now there doesn't seem to be any knockout Josh Beckett types in this draft; even the top arms have some question marks.

I am working on my draft board and will have an early version of it for you on Saturday. These reports have focused mostly on guys who could go in the first round or in the supplemental round, and as we get closer to draft day I will mix in more guys from later in the draft.

Here are high school pitchers who could go in the first round:

1) Tim Melville, RHP, Missouri HS: Opinion of him dipped a tad after an erratic start but he's been better lately and still rates as the best overall high school arm available according to virtually all sources. Big guy at 6-5, 200. Works in the low 90s and projects more velocity as he refines his mechanics. Shows a fine knuckle-curve, at times, but it needs more consistency. It would not surprise me to see Martin pass him on draft day.

2) Ethan Martin, RHP, Georgia HS: Also a prospect as a hitter, but his stock as a pitcher has really taken off this spring following a series of dominating performances. 6-3, 200, fine athlete, has shown a 92-96 MPH fastball this spring and more polish than anticipated. Under consideration for Shadow Twins at 14. It wouldn't surprise me to see him end up ahead of Melville when all is said and done.

3) Alex Meyer, RHP, Indiana HS: I admit, I have a slight bias in favor of colder-weather and/or Midwest pitchers. In theory they have less mileage on their arms. 6-7, 200 pounds, hits 94 MPH and projects more. Also has a good spike curveball. Size leads to worries about his mechanics and command and generally speaking I'm not obsessed with tall pitchers, but for some reason I like him intuitively. Mid-to-late first round pick.

--MINOR LEAGUE BALL

AA DISH

SOUTHERN LEAGUE

Prospect Nuggets
Huntsville (Brewers) third baseman Mat Gamel now has nine home runs and a .367/.426/.665 line in 158 at-bats after going 2-for-6 with a home run yesterday . . . Carolina (Marlins) center fielder Cameron Maybin went 2-for-5 and hit his fourth double . . . Michael Saunders has had better games than yesterday’s. The West Tenn (Mariners) right fielder went 1-for-4 and struck out three times.

--BASEBALL AMERICA AA DISH

AAA DISH

PACIFIC COAST LEAGUE

Prospect Of The Day

The way lefthander Jaime Garcia (Cardinals) is pitching, he’ll be Prospect of the Day every time he takes the hill. Against Tucson yesterday, the 21-year-old threw seven shutout innings, struck out six and allowed six hits and a walk. And after recording 10 of 15 outs-in-play on the ground, his ratio of groundouts to fly outs stands at 2.38-to-1. In two Triple-A starts, covering 13 innings, Garcia has allowed two runs (one earned), struck out 12 and walked one.

--BASEBALL AMERICA AAA DISH

NCBWA Players of the Week for May 13th

DALLAS - The National Collegiate Baseball Writers Association (NCBWA) ­ released the Pro-Line Athletic National Player of the Week awards for the period ending May 11, today. Coastal Carolina junior first baseman David Anderson was named National Hitter of the Week, while Long Beach State senior right-hander Andrew Liebel was named National Pitcher of the Week. The NCBWA Board reviews candidates from each Division I Conference each week and names winners each Tuesday throughout the season.

-THE COLLEGE BASEBALL BLOG

CBB Column: Missouri Scouting Report

The CBB recently had an opportunity to take in the Missouri-Kansas series over this past weekend. We focused on the strong Missouri team which includes one of the top pitchers in the country for 2008 in Aaron Crow and one of the top 2009 pitching prospects in Kyle Gibson. We also checked in on some of the other top players on the squad who might make an impact in the coming future.

Aaron Crow JR 6′3, 195 RHP
Crow is one of the top players in the country and I believe him to be the best pitcher in the country (Brian Matusz of San Diego gets a close 2nd). Crow has 2 very strong pitches he relies on. His fastball and his slider. His fastball is in the lower to mid 90’s with good late movement. He has great command of it and throws it on both sides of the plate and will use it up in the zone. His control is extremely good. Having control and command of a mid 90’s moving fastball is a sick thing to have as a pitcher. He couldn’t do it all with just a fastball however. His second pitch is a slider in the mid 80’s. This is usually his strikeout pitch i would assume. He gets ahead of hitters with his fastball and then flashes the slider to finish them off. He also has a change up but at this point it is just an average pitch and he doesn’t use it a whole lot. He has a 3.08 ERA with 92 strikeouts in 76 innings. He has only walked 24 and has given up 66 hits. I will be watching him very close tonight. I want to see his 3/4 arm delivery and how smooth he looks with it. I will be anxious to see the movement on his fastball and to see how much his slider breaks. Crow is a feisty competitor as well so i will be anxious to see him talk smack and show his emotions out there.

--THE COLLEGE BASEBALL BLOG

Thin crop could benefit Martin

Ethan Martin might be the first high school pitcher taken in this draft, though that's partly a reflection of how thin the high school pitching crop is just one year after one of the strongest groups of prep arms we've ever seen. Martin's fastball runs from 91-95 mph right now, and that's despite some mechanical flaws in his delivery. He throws a sharp-breaking curveball with very tight rotation in the low 80s. That pitch, though, pitch is pretty inconsistent and it took him a while to get a feel for it in the game I saw. Martin locks his knee during his leg kick and lands very stiffly, resulting in some recoil, which at least partly explains his poor command. The backstop takes quite a lot of abuse. He's an excellent athlete who was a preseason first-round candidate as a third baseman, and did hit a towering homer out to left in Friday's game to go with the two that his brother, Cody, hit earlier in the contest. Ethan's a solid first rounder, probably going in the 11-20 range.

-KEITH LAW AT ESPN.COM

Draft Report: Head of the class

All these weeks, all these reports. Good stuff, sure, but something was missing. The Draft Report went over the century mark but without filing on two of the top prospects in the entire class.

The wait is now over. In this week's Report, you can read all about Vandy third baseman Pedro Alvarez and lefty San Diego ace Brian Matusz. Joining that dynamic duo are five other collegians sure to go off the board fairly early on June 5.

Next week is the final week for TDR, so we'll be sure to load up with a grand finale of prospecting for you. For now, enjoy the septet below.

Pedro Alvarez, 3B
Vanderbilt University
That's right, another top prospect from Vandy. Despite missing over a month after breaking a hamate bone, Alvarez is still expected to go early in the first round. Even though he went hitless in a recent game against Tennessee Tech, scouts are still impressed with his overall offensive package. Complete Report

--MiLB.COM

Rays' Price close to returning to action

ST. PETERSBURG -- David Price is close to resuming his season.

The Rays prospect did not begin the season with Class A Advanced Vero Beach as expected due to left elbow soreness and has been on a rehab assignment in St. Petersburg. He threw Monday, and according to Rays executive vice president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, the club expects Price to throw five innings "later in the week" in an extended Spring Training game.

"And from there, we'll monitor [the situation]," Friedman said. "But my best guess now is that we'll be sending him out [likely to Vero Beach after the five-inning stint]."

--MiLB.COM

Bruce letting his bat do the talking

Jay Bruce went a perfect 3-for-3 and came within a single of hitting for the cycle on Wednesday afternoon, but you wouldn't know it from talking to him.

"I'm excited about the fact that I drew two walks more than anything else," said Bruce after Louisville's 11-6 victory over Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. "I'm an aggressive hitter, but I'm trying to balance that by showing discipline at the plate. That's half the battle right there. I plan on staying aggressive, but at the same time I have to make sure that I don't get myself out by swinging at pitches that I can't do anything with."

While Bruce focuses on his plate approach, the rest of the Cincinnati organization and their fans will no doubt focus on the fact that MLB.com's top-ranked prospect had yet another stellar ballgame. The 2005 first-round Draft pick collected three extra-base hits -- including his eighth home run of the season -- drove in three runs and scored two. He has hit an astronomical .611 (22-for-36) over his past 10 ballgames, and an International League-leading .366 overall.

--MiLB.COM

Three up, three down

Joe Mather is on a tear as of late, and what the heck is going on with Kenny Maiques?

THREE UP

Joe Mather: “Joey Bombs”  is putting on a show reminiscent of the one he put on in AA last season, yet even better. Since coming off the disabled list Mather has been a one-man wrecking crew. He’s hitting .321/.433/.617 in 98 plate appearances. He’s homered 3 times in his last 6 games, and twice in his last two. His batting eye has been outstanding, he’s walked 14 times to 12 K’s. If it weren’t for such a crowded outfield situation already with the big club, one would think Mather would be in the big leagues now.

Allen Craig: He was nearly listed in our last edition of three up, three down, but on the downside. Craig is slugging .652 for the month of May, and hitting for a .326 average. He has yet to draw a walk this month, but it’s great to see his power return. 6 of his last 13 hits have gone for extra bases.

Nick Stavinoha: The former long-snapper has yet to hit for the type of power he showed in college or at the QC, but he’s hitting .433 in his last 10 at bats, and .381/.416/.548 in 126 at bats for the season. He’s not drawing a ton of walks or hitting for a lot of power, and he just turned 26, so it’s hard to get too excited about him. But he’s also not striking out often and hitting a lot of line drives, thus the high average.

--FUTURE REDBIRDS

Sox Prospects: Player and Pitcher of the Week

Player of the Week, 5/5-5/11: Bubba Bell
After a slow start to 2008, Portland CF Bubba Bell capped off a torrid week at the plate to win SoxProspects.com Player of the Week honors as voted on by the Community. Bell, 25, scorched EL pitchers to a tune of .421/.476/.842 with two home runs and three runs batted in to go along with two doubles and six runs scored. The 2007 California League MVP spent the bulk of his time last season at Lancaster hitting .370 and heading up the league leaders in home runs and runs batted in before receiving the call to Portland for 34 games to finish off 2007.

Pitcher of the Week, 5/5-5/11: Jason Blackey
Lancaster RP Jason Blackey has taken home SoxProspects.com Pitcher of the Week honors as voted on by the Community. Blackey,25, fired five innings this week allowing one earned run and four hits while striking out ten against no walks. He came on against Inland Empire to strikeout nine batters over four innings of scoreless relief on May 9th. It was Blackey's 2nd appearance since coming off the DL. The former 34th round Draft Pick of the Los Angeles Angels spent 2007 with the Lancaster appearing in 41 games.

--SOX PROSPECTS

2008 Mock Draft, version 2.1

Three weeks ago, I rolled out version 1.1 of my mock draft, so I figured it was time to do a bit more digging, try and find some more info that might make the pick a bit more clear, and then make a few necessary updates. To be clear, I have no inside information here, its based strictly on looking at players available and then the team’s past drafting history. I’ve compiled first and supplemental first round data for all 30 teams from 2003-2007, in hopes of finding patterns which might make this a bit easier. Of course, teams can always throw a curveball and do something unexpected, and even the most detailed mock drafts done days before will have things out of place. But thats part of the fun. So, for each pick, I’ll give my updated pick, my last pick for the team, and the under each team a brief analysis of past drafts. If you’ve found my site and you support another team, please chime in if I’ve missed anything, if you have some info on who the team is leaning towards, etc etc. So, lets get going

Before I get started, I just wanted to post a few averages based on the numbers I found for draft history from 2003 to 2007. If I missed anything here, I’d appreciate you pointing it out so I can update my numbers. Here are the raw numbers, and remember, this includes the first round and the supplemental first round

Total picks: 233
4 year college players: 128 (55%)
High school seniors: 102 (44%)
Junior College players: 3 (1%)
Catchers: 18 (8%)
Corner INF: 23 (10%) (I tried to be accurate here, some guys are technically drafted as SS but immediately move to 3B, they are counted as CI)
Middle INF: 27 (12%)
Outfielders: 38 (16%)
Righthanded Pitchers: 88 (38%)
Lefthanded Pitchers: 38 (16%)

Now, onto the draft..

--PHUTURE PHILLIES